Reverend Lovejoy wrote:
<music CS stuff snipped>
> Let's even say that you can download a
> complete movie with a High Definition picture and Dolby 5.1
sound.
> You really like it, so you go to the store and get the DVD.
Now, you
> not only have a case for your collection, but you have oodles
of
> special features, makings of, interviews, whatever is packed
onto
> that DVD. Everything a fan could want, typically 10 or more
hours of
> entertainment, all for around 18 dollars if it's new, 15 if
it's a
> few months old, and typically less than fifteen for an older
movie.
> Do you have more than you downloaded? yes. Was it worth your
money?
> yes.
Interesting analysis, but overlooking one obvious point in both
CDs and DVDs - space!
When I began ripping CDs the advantage of the MP3 10:1
compression (or 5:1, or 2:1) was immediately obvious ... pack
more music on to a CD, thus reducing the storage space allocated
by the same factor and at the same time weeding out unwanted
filler tunes to "compose" a more listenable and entertaining CD.
As soon as MP3 CD players hit the market, I was among the first
customers.
Until recently, backing up a DVD produced a 19:8 space saving
(19 slim jewels fit in the same space as 8 DVD sleeves). Now
this is, in reality, very close to 1:1, if all the DVDs were
dual layer and none of the backups was shrunk. But neither is
the case, eh?
Although I was already routing video signals from the PCs to the
TVs, when MPEG4 players hit the market I eagerly bought one. I
can store 10 to 14 hours of as-good-as-shrunk-quality video on a
4.3g DVD-R. Examples: The complete 4 disc set of "The Shield"
converts nicely to a single DVD (this includes the bonus
material provided). All the "Max Headroom" episodes ever
produced converted from my VCR tapes to a single DVD.
An added bonus ... who needs a DVD changer??
Compression is an enemy of the studio CD/DVD. Producers will
continue to resist its use, despite the very same companies
developing blue laser technology to further compound the issue -
not to mention that Phillips has demonstrated consumer
dual-layer DVD-R creation just recently. The producers are not
about to make 100 track CDs and 8 video DVDs available on the
store shelves (present pricing implies about $150US for either
and beside who'd want the tracks/films they'd choose to put
together at any price?).
In the video marketplace, broadcast and display technology is
finding ways to consume the rapidly increasing storage ability
of the DVD but it's quite clear that storage space real-estate
requirements are shrinking faster than bit rate requirements are
expanding. At the same time, internet broadband access is
increasing, thus bringing an additionally unaddressed
compression and distribution nightmare to bear on the fixed
media mind-set!!!
While today I can hand a DVD to a friend that contains 400 MP3
tracks or 4 feature films with bonus materials, in the near
future that disc will hold 2 and then 10 times that amount.
That is just one more notch in the future of total available
bandwidth. Next year's 4 gigahertz processors and the faster
ones to follow will speed the conversion times, rendering the
task trivial.
I don't have a proposal for the media-based entertainment
industry. TiVo, another example, is a godsend to watching the
few commercial-laden programs of any merit. Yet this is an
obviously interim product. Automated editing of commercial
interruptions will be the death-knell of broadcast TV (and
possibly radio as well). Perhaps only a new industry, arising
Phoenix-like from the ashes of today's media
producers/distributors, will address new technology and how to
use it profitably.
The time they are a changin'
BJ
>
> I think this explains why CD sales are falling while DVDs fly
off the
> shelves. I don't believe that piracy and CD sales are
correlated at
> all (or if they are, by a very weak correlation, probably in
the
> opposite direction the RIAA assumes). It just has to do with
the
> value and quality of the product being offered, and by
offering more
> (which, incidentally, wouldn't cost all that much more), you
increase
> the value of the product to the point that consumers will be
more
> likely to spend discretionary funds on it.
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