I think the whole issue of file sharing increasing the CD sales is a little like a
MLM advertisement: it ignores the saturation of the market.
The people have a relative constant desire to listen to music. Today, this desire is
satisfied by commercial suppliers. The percent of people who use p2p to satisfy a
significant part of this desire, is totally negligible. In this, and only in this
situation, sharing can lead to a small increase in sales ( or a big increase for a
minority of artists without media coverage - Janis Ian springs to mind). It is
normal that a freer environment stimulate the desire to acquire music, including from
commercial channels. As file sharing intensifies, it will tend to replace the
commercial channels, and not augment them, because, as I said, the potential of the
market is limited, and there is a point of saturation, at which the subjects will not
buy *or* download music.
The only thing that could sustain the sales in such a situation would be that fans
will continue to buy CDs just to compensate their favorite artists, even if they
don't listen them - as some of the pro-p2p folks say. I refrain from speculating if
this is a likely scenario, because I lack data, but I must say it would be a
difficult position for the music industry - being at the mercy of the best fans. As a
side fact, I don't think the technical quality of the CDs will sustain the sales for
much longer - more and more high quality tracks (256, 320 kpbs) make their way into
p2p networks, and this should satisfy even the most demanding listeners.
Of curse, I think we are very, very far from the said saturation point, and that the
sale drop proclaimed by the RIAA is pure smoke. But broad band internet is growing
fast, and with it p2p. So I can understand the fear the music industry has of
technology - the only way for them is down, from having all control to having less
control. Copyright infringement and p2p are unstoppable, and the industry must either
adapt or go the way of the dinosaurs. There are many other ways to make money from
music and support the artists, but the industry only highlights direct sales.
After all, the software community confronted unauthorized copying for years and they
are doing pretty well. And just like in the software industry, freedom can lead to
very nice things, such as an equivalent to open source in the music world.
____________
"What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans, and the homeless,
whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism
or the holy name of liberty and democracy?"
-Gandhi
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