more at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2018/10/25/five-reasons-the-u-s-air-force-should-be-buying-f-35-fighters-much-faster/#185674eb3c05
So the late Senator John McCain apparently was prescient when he predicted in
2012 that F-35 might become "the greatest combat aircraft in the history of the
world." After completing over 9,000 flight tests during which there were no
serious mishaps, the plane has demonstrated that it is ten times better than
legacy fighters at jamming enemy radar, six times better at winning aerial
engagements, and five times better at striking ground targets. It also collects
and interprets intelligence better than any tactical aircraft in history.
Air Force leaders understand that F-35 is a game changer. They also realize that
because their service is destined to absorb 72% of the domestic production run,
the rate at which they buy the plane impacts the price that sister services and
allies must pay for it. But the Air Force is a complex institution, with
numerous missions and communities. Sometimes the vision of what F-35 was
intended to be gets obscured. That is at least one of the reasons why the Air
Force has not ramped up production to the rate originally envisioned.
There are big dangers associated with moving too slowly on F-35 procurement.
Here are the five dangers that should matter most to the Air Force.
1. At current procurement rates, the fighter force will shrink and age. The
Secretary of the Air Force has stated that her service needs many more aircraft
squadrons than it currently has to do its job. She's right. However, the Air
Force requested only 48 F-35As (its version of the fighter) for 2019, and
expects to order no more than 54 annually through 2023. As old fighters retire,
the service needs at least 66 F-35s per year to preserve its force structure.
And if it orders less than 100 each year, the already aged fighter fleet will
continue growing older.
2. Much of the current fighter force won't survive in a future war. About 80% of
today's fighter force consists of aircraft developed in the 1970s. The planes
have all been upgraded, but some things like the integrated stealth that makes
F-35 invisible to enemy radar can't be retrofitted. Intelligence estimates
indicate non-stealthy aircraft will suffer severe losses in a future East-West
war. At current F-35 procurement rates, half the force will still be Cold War
fighters in 2030. Doubling the rate to 100 per year would cut the number of
sitting ducks to below 20% in 2030.
3. The U.S. Army can't win in Europe without lots of Air Force F-35s. The Army
depends on air cover to fight and win. However, Army planners say that Russian
air defenses over Eastern Europe are so dense they can no longer count on having
overhead protection. Given the advantages Russia would enjoy fighting close to
home, the Army would probably be defeated -- unless the Air Force can deploy
hundreds of highly survivable F-35s to suppress Russian air defenses and fires.
U.S. naval aviation can't get close enough to do the job.
4. Tight budgets will crush weapons spending in the next decade. As I noted
earlier this week in Forbes, a combination of rising inflation plus big budget
deficits will bring an early end to the Trump defense buildup after 2020. By
midway through the next decade, the federal government's cost to carry its
accumulated debt will likely exceed a trillion dollars annually. Meanwhile,
entitlement outlays for baby boomers will be at a peak. So it is going to get a
lot harder to acquire new weapons. The Air Force needs to buy the F-35s it
requires now, before budget walls close in.
5. Unlike other game-changing weapons, F-35 is available today. The Air Force
doesn't just need new fighters, it needs new tankers, bombers, trainers and
radar planes. Everything is worn out. What makes F-35 different from the other
new weapons, though, is that it is in production and operational today. All the
other planes are still in development. Because high-rate production of all the
different aircraft the Air Force needs will be fiscally impossible by the time
planes like the bomber complete testing, it is just common sense to speed
deliveries of the one game-changer available today.
The most amazing thing about the F-35 is that it exists at all. The Clinton
administration loaded up the plane with so many missions and requirements that
it is nearly a miracle the program managed to reach serial production. Now that
it has, though, the military needs to take advantage of the $100 billion that
four presidents have invested in getting to this point. If the threat forecasts
in the National Defense Strategy are valid, the day is not far off when it will
be obvious the Air Force should have been buying the F-35A at twice the rate it
currently contemplates.
more at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2018/10/25/five-reasons-the-u-s-air-force-should-be-buying-f-35-fighters-much-faster/#185674eb3c05
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